11 matches with xG on 12 Nov 2026, across 3 competitions. Look to San Marino vs Belarus for chances: 3.61 xG between them on the preview. No side is rated higher than Spain, at 59%. The tightest preview belongs to Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR.
UEFA Nations League · League C - 5 · 17:00 UTC · Armenia vs Cyprus
Cyprus travel to Armenia in UEFA Nations League action (League C - 5), the match gets under way at 17:00 UTC.
The xG record in front of their own fans reads 1.04 for, 1.51 against per game for Armenia from their last five games. In those matches: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses.
Cyprus have averaged 1.67 xG for and 1.56 against across all venues in their last eight matches. The results side of it: 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses.
The head-to-head: Armenia 0, draws 1, Cyprus 1 from 2 matches. The latest of those games: Cyprus 2-0 Armenia, 2 Oct 2026.
Each side's chances for and against combine to 1.30 xG for Armenia and 1.59 for Cyprus. Win, draw, win: 31%, 25%, 44%. Score most likely: 1-1. For goals, the preview has 55% on three goals or more and both teams on the scoresheet at 58%.
Our xG previewArmenia: last five in xGCyprus: last five in xG
UEFA Nations League · League A - 5 · 17:00 UTC · Türkiye vs Belgium
Kick-off at 17:00 UTC for Türkiye vs Belgium in the UEFA Nations League, League A - 5.
Belgium's chances on their travels come to 2.00 xG per match across the last ten, with 0.95 conceded, scoring 2.6 a game, more than the chances suggest. The results side of it: 6 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost.
The xG record in home games reads 1.91 for, 1.49 against per game for Türkiye across the last nine; the goals, at 1.4 per game, have not kept pace. In those matches: 4 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats. A win has escaped the hosts for four matches.
Their only earlier game in our records went to Belgium. Their most recent game, on 2 Oct 2026, finished Belgium 3-0 Türkiye.
On recent chances, Türkiye project to 1.43 xG here and Belgium to 1.75. 63% that each side scores, 61% on three goals or more. The split comes out at 32% / 23% / 45% for Türkiye, the draw and Belgium. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often.
Our xG previewTürkiye: last five in xGBelgium: last five in xG
Next to nothing between Albania and Finland on the chances
UEFA Nations League · League C - 5 · 19:45 UTC · Albania vs Finland
It is Albania against Finland (UEFA Nations League), from 19:45 UTC.
Finland's chances across all venues come to 1.48 xG per match over their last seven, with 1.06 conceded. In those matches: 1.4 points a game (3-1-3).
In front of their own fans, over their last five, Albania carry 1.50 xG created and 1.21 allowed per game; 1.0 goals a game leaves them short of their chances. The results side of it: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats.
One previous meeting on record: won by Finland. When they last met (3 Oct 2026), it ended Finland 2-1 Albania.
Put together, our xG preview gives Albania 1.28 expected goals and Finland 1.34. Turned into chances, Albania win 35% of the time, the away side 38%, with 26% for the draw. On goals: over 2.5 on 49%, 53% that each side scores.
Our xG previewAlbania: last five in xGFinland: last five in xG
Spain take 30 games without defeat into Czechia v Spain
UEFA Nations League · League A - 5 · 19:45 UTC · Czechia vs Spain
On the UEFA Nations League programme, League A - 5: Czechia vs Spain, 19:45 UTC.
Spain have averaged 2.33 xG for and 0.56 against on the road over a 8-game sample. In those matches: no defeat (8 won, 0 drawn). It is 30 games without defeat for Spain. The away side have scored in eleven in a row.
Across 3 meetings in our records, the record stands at 0 Czechia wins, 2 for Spain and 1 draw. Last time out it was Spain 3-1 Czechia (3 Oct 2026).
Czechia's chances on home ground come to 1.14 xG per match from their last seven games, with 1.23 conceded. The results side of it: W1 D2 L4. Czechia have gone seven without a win.
Taking both records together, the preview has Czechia on 0.85 xG and Spain on 1.78. Those numbers give the hosts a 18% chance of winning, Spain 59%, and the draw 23%. 49% for a three-goal game, a goal at each end at 48%. Score most likely: 0-1.
Our xG previewCzechia: last five in xGSpain: last five in xG
UEFA Nations League · League A - 5 · 19:45 UTC · England vs Croatia
England welcome Croatia in UEFA Nations League, League A - 5; first whistle 19:45 UTC.
Croatia sit at 1.58 expected goals for, 1.46 against per game on opponents' grounds in their last nine matches; the goals, at 1.2 per game, have not kept pace. In those matches: 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats.
Over 3 past encounters, England won 3, Croatia won 0 and 0 were drawn. The latest of those games: Croatia 0-7 England, 3 Oct 2026.
On their own pitch, England produce 1.47 xG and give up 1.16 on average over a 10-game sample. The results side of it: 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. England have scored in ten in a row. Nothing conceded in three for England.
On recent chances, England project to 1.46 xG here and Croatia to 1.37. That points to England 40%, draw 25%, Croatia 35%. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often. For goals, the preview has 54% for over 2.5 and a goal at each end at 57%.
Our xG previewEngland: last five in xGCroatia: last five in xG
UEFA Nations League · League A - 5 · 19:45 UTC · Italy vs France
At 19:45 UTC, Italy take on France in UEFA Nations League action (League A - 5).
France have been running at 1.58 xG created and 0.99 allowed in away games, in the most recent ten. In those matches: 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat. The visitors arrive on a 4-match unbeaten run. A goal in every one of their last five for the away side.
Across 3 meetings in our records, Italy won 1, France won 1 and 1 was drawn. Last time out it was France 1-1 Italy (2 Oct 2026).
At home, Italy produce 2.45 xG and give up 1.20 on average across the last six. The results side of it: 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats.
Setting each attack against the other's defence, the preview has Italy on 1.72 xG and France on 1.39. Those numbers give Italy a 45% chance of winning, France 31%, and the draw 23%. 60% for a three-goal game, both teams on the scoresheet at 62%.
Our xG previewItaly: last five in xGFrance: last five in xG
A slight xG lean towards Montenegro against Latvia
UEFA Nations League · League C - 5 · 19:45 UTC · Montenegro vs Latvia
Montenegro vs Latvia (UEFA Nations League) gets going at 19:45 UTC.
Latvia sit at 0.96 xG created and 1.72 allowed per game overall in the most recent eight, scoring 0.5 per match, below what the chances are worth. Results in that spell: 0.2 points a game (0-2-6). No win in six for the travelling side.
In 4 previous meetings on record, the record stands at 2 Montenegro wins, 0 for Latvia and 2 draws. Last time out it was Latvia 1-2 Montenegro (2 Oct 2026).
Wherever they played, in the most recent nine, Montenegro carry an xG split of 1.57 to 1.56 per game, but only 1.2 goals a game have followed. The home side took 1.4 points a game (4-1-4) from them. The home side have gone six without losing.
Put together: 1.65 xG for Montenegro, 1.26 for Latvia. In outcomes: home win 46%, draw 24%, away win 29%. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often. 58% for both sides scoring, three or more goals at 56%.
Our xG previewMontenegro: last five in xGLatvia: last five in xG
Plenty of chances on the cards: San Marino vs Belarus
UEFA Nations League · League C - 5 · 19:45 UTC · San Marino vs Belarus
It is San Marino against Belarus in UEFA Nations League action (League C - 5), from 19:45 UTC.
From 2 earlier games between them, San Marino won 0, Belarus won 2 and 0 were drawn. The latest of those games: Belarus 4-0 San Marino, 3 Oct 2026.
Over their last five on opponents' grounds, Belarus created 0.75 xG a game and allowed 2.26. In those matches: 0.4 points a game (0-2-3). Belarus kept three clean sheets in a row.
In all games, in the most recent eight, San Marino carry 0.46 xG created and 3.75 allowed per game. The results side of it: 0 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats. San Marino are 18 games without a victory.
Each side's chances for and against combine to 1.36 xG for San Marino and 2.25 for Belarus. Over 2.5 on 70%, both teams to score at 66%. Those numbers give San Marino a 23% chance of winning, Belarus 58%, and the draw 20%. The likeliest scoreline: 1-2.
Our xG previewSan Marino: last five in xGBelarus: last five in xG
Kick-off at 22:00 UTC for Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR (Serie B) (Regular Season - 38).
On opponents' grounds, over their last ten, Operario-PR carry 1.30 xG created and 1.98 allowed per game. In those matches: W2 D3 L5.
They have met once before in our records, a win for Operario-PR. The latest of those games: Operario-PR 3-2 Ponte Preta, 22 Jul 2026.
Ponte Preta have averaged an xG split of 0.97 to 1.54 on their own pitch over their last ten. The results side of it: 1 win, 4 draws and 5 defeats. Ponte Preta last won more than eight games ago.
On recent chances, Ponte Preta project to 1.48 xG here and Operario-PR to 1.42. The split comes out at 39% / 25% / 36% for Ponte Preta, the draw and Operario-PR. The goals picture: 58% for both sides scoring, 55% for a three-goal game.
Our xG previewPonte Preta: last five in xGOperario-PR: last five in xG
Serie B (Regular Season - 38): São Bernardo play Athletic Club at 23:00 UTC.
One previous meeting on record: won by Athletic Club. Their most recent game, on 23 Jul 2026, finished Athletic Club 2-1 São Bernardo.
On home ground, São Bernardo produce 0.94 xG and give up 1.16 on average from their last ten games, scoring 1.4 a game, more than the chances suggest. Across that stretch, 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats for the home side.
Athletic Club sit at 0.90 xG for and 1.50 against per game in away games from their last ten games. Over the same games, Athletic Club recorded 1.0 points a game (2-4-4).
Each side's chances for and against combine to 1.22 xG for São Bernardo and 1.03 for Athletic Club. Turned into chances, São Bernardo win 40% of the time, Athletic Club 31%, with 29% for the draw. Both teams on the scoresheet at 45%, over 2.5 on 39%. The likeliest scoreline: 1-1.
Our xG previewSão Bernardo: last five in xGAthletic Club: last five in xG
Deportivo Pasto host Junior in Primera A, Clausura - 19; kick-off time 22:00 UTC.
Junior have been running at 0.97 expected goals for, 1.52 against away from home, in their last ten matches. Over the same games, Junior recorded 2 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost.
At home, from their last ten games, Deportivo Pasto carry 0.84 xG for and 1.03 against per game. Across that stretch, 2 won, 0 drawn, 8 lost for Deportivo Pasto.
These two have met 3 times in our records: 0-1-2 from Deportivo Pasto's side. The latest of those games: Junior 4-3 Deportivo Pasto, 3 May 2026.
With both sides' numbers combined: 1.18 xG for Deportivo Pasto, 1.00 for Junior. Those numbers give Deportivo Pasto a 40% chance of winning, Junior 31%, and the draw 29%. Of all scorelines, 1-0 comes up most often. For goals, the preview has 37% for over 2.5 and both teams on the scoresheet at 44%.
Our xG previewDeportivo Pasto: last five in xGJunior: last five in xG
For each match with xG, both sides' last ten matches with xG before the kick-off: the home side's home games and the away side's away games when there are five or more, otherwise all games. Each attack's chances created are set against the other side's chances allowed, which gives each side's expected goals for the match; the outcomes and the goals markets come from those numbers (Poisson). After the final whistle the match's own xG sits next to the preview. How we measure xG · xG Guide.
A reading of recent chances, not a forecast and not a tip. Times are in UTC.