On 13 Nov 2026 brings 13 matches with xG in 4 competitions. The most chances are expected in Moldova vs Kazakhstan (3.18 xG in all). No side is rated higher than Azerbaijan, at 53%. Closest on paper: Serbia vs Germany.
UEFA Nations League · League C - 5 · 17:00 UTC · Moldova vs Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan travel to Moldova in UEFA Nations League action, the game starts at 17:00 UTC.
Moldova's chances home and away come to 0.78 xG per match over a 8-game sample, with 2.90 conceded. Across that stretch, 1 win, 2 draws, 5 losses for the home side.
The xG record home and away reads 0.84 for, 1.83 against per game for Kazakhstan from their last eight games. Over the same games, the visitors recorded a single win (3 drawn, 4 lost). Kazakhstan have gone six without a win. The travelling side have scored in eight in a row.
The head-to-head: Moldova 2, draws 0, Kazakhstan 1 from 3 matches. Last time out it was Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova (2 Oct 2026).
On recent chances, Moldova project to 1.31 xG here and Kazakhstan to 1.87. Those numbers give Moldova a 27% chance of winning, the away side 51%, and the draw 23%. The goals picture: both teams to score at 62%, 61% for over 2.5. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often.
Our xG previewMoldova: last five in xGKazakhstan: last five in xG
UEFA Nations League · League D - 5 · 19:45 UTC · Andorra vs Gibraltar
On the UEFA Nations League programme: Andorra vs Gibraltar, 19:45 UTC.
Andorra sit at 0.39 expected goals for, 1.58 against per game home and away from their last seven games. The home side took W0 D2 L5 from them. No win in five for Andorra. Three matches without a goal for the home side.
Across 4 meetings in our records, the record stands at 0 Andorra wins, 2 for Gibraltar and 2 draws. Their most recent game, on 27 Sep 2026, finished Gibraltar 0-0 Andorra.
Home and away, Gibraltar produce 0.21 xG and give up 2.60 on average in their last six matches. Results in that spell: no win (2 drawn, 4 lost). Gibraltar are unbeaten in six.
Each side's chances for and against combine to 1.50 xG for Andorra and 0.90 for Gibraltar. On goals: three or more goals at 43%, a goal at each end at 46%. The split comes out at 51% / 26% / 23% for Andorra, the draw and Gibraltar. The likeliest scoreline: 1-0.
Our xG previewAndorra: last five in xGGibraltar: last five in xG
UEFA Nations League · League C - 5 · 19:45 UTC · Bulgaria vs Iceland
At 19:45 UTC, Bulgaria take on Iceland in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 5).
One previous meeting on record: won by Iceland. The last meeting, on 3 Oct 2026, ended Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria.
Across the last nine, across all venues, Iceland's matches have averaged 1.67 xG created and 1.38 allowed; their finishing (2.2 goals per match) has outrun their xG. Over the same games, Iceland recorded 4 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost. Iceland have not lost in four matches. The visitors have not conceded in three.
In the most recent five, in front of their own fans, Bulgaria's matches have averaged an xG split of 0.76 to 1.69. Across that stretch, 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost for Bulgaria.
Put together, our xG preview gives Bulgaria 1.07 expected goals and Iceland 1.68. As outcomes, that reads 24% for the home side, 24% for a draw and 52% for the away side. For goals, the preview has 52% for over 2.5 and a goal at each end at 53%. On these chances 1-1 is the most common score.
Our xG previewBulgaria: last five in xGIceland: last five in xG
Kick-off at 19:45 UTC for Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan in UEFA Nations League.
Overall, Liechtenstein produce 0.14 xG and give up 2.38 on average in the most recent seven. Results in that spell: 0 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats. Liechtenstein last won more than seven games ago. Liechtenstein drew a blank in each of their last six.
They have met once before in our records, a draw. The latest of those games: Azerbaijan 0-0 Liechtenstein, 1 Oct 2026.
Home and away, over their last nine, Azerbaijan carry 0.90 xG created and 1.78 allowed per game. Azerbaijan took 0.7 points a game (1-3-5) from them. Azerbaijan arrive on a 5-match unbeaten run.
The expected goals for this one come out at 0.96 (Liechtenstein) and 1.64 (Azerbaijan). For goals, the preview has three or more goals at 48% and 50% for both sides scoring. As outcomes, that reads 22% for the home side, 25% for a draw and 53% for the visitors.
Our xG previewLiechtenstein: last five in xGAzerbaijan: last five in xG
Hardly a thing between Luxembourg and Estonia on expected goals
UEFA Nations League · League C - 5 · 19:45 UTC · Luxembourg vs Estonia
Kick-off at 19:45 UTC for Luxembourg vs Estonia in UEFA Nations League action.
The xG record overall reads 0.60 for, 1.69 against per game for Luxembourg over their last nine. Luxembourg took 0.3 points a game (1-0-8) from them. Luxembourg drew a blank in each of their last three.
Estonia have averaged 0.90 xG created and 2.02 allowed home and away across the last seven. Results in that spell: 1 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost. The visitors have gone six without losing. Estonia have not conceded in three.
One previous meeting on record: won by Estonia. The latest of those games: Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg, 3 Oct 2026.
Each side's chances for and against combine to 1.31 xG for Luxembourg and 1.29 for Estonia. As for goals, 48% on three goals or more and 53% for both sides scoring. Win, draw, win: 37%, 26%, 36%. The most likely single score on those numbers is 1-1.
Our xG previewLuxembourg: last five in xGEstonia: last five in xG
Netherlands v Greece: Netherlands edge the chances
UEFA Nations League · League A - 5 · 19:45 UTC · Netherlands vs Greece
Greece travel to Netherlands in UEFA Nations League, the match gets under way at 19:45 UTC.
The head-to-head: Netherlands 2, draws 1, Greece 0 from 3 matches. Last time out it was Greece 2-2 Netherlands (1 Oct 2026).
Netherlands sit at 1.69 expected goals for, 0.93 against per game at home over a 10-game sample, with 2.3 goals per game beating the xG. The results side of it: W4 D4 L2. It is nine games without defeat for the home side. Netherlands have found the net in nine straight games.
The xG record wherever they played reads 1.60 for, 1.28 against per game for Greece from their last eight games. In those matches: 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats. It is four games without defeat for the travelling side.
Our xG preview builds this match at 1.48 to 1.27 in expected goals. Turned into chances, the hosts win 42% of the time, Greece 32%, with 25% for the draw. For goals, the preview has three or more goals at 52% and both teams on the scoresheet at 56%. The most likely single score on those numbers is 1-1.
Our xG previewNetherlands: last five in xGGreece: last five in xG
UEFA Nations League, League B - 5: Scotland play North Macedonia at 19:45 UTC.
Scotland have averaged 0.83 expected goals for, 1.75 against on their own pitch from their last eight games, with 1.2 goals per game beating the xG. Results in that spell: 3 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost.
Their only earlier game in our records went to Scotland. The last meeting, on 3 Oct 2026, ended North Macedonia 0-2 Scotland.
North Macedonia have been running at 0.85 xG for and 2.44 against overall, over a 7-game sample. The travelling side took a single win (2 drawn, 4 lost) from them. North Macedonia have gone twelve without a win. Goals have dried up: eight games without one for North Macedonia.
On recent chances, Scotland project to 1.64 xG here and North Macedonia to 1.30. The split comes out at 45% / 24% / 30% for Scotland, the draw and North Macedonia. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often. For goals, the preview has 56% for a three-goal game and both teams to score at 59%.
Our xG previewScotland: last five in xGNorth Macedonia: last five in xG
UEFA Nations League · League A - 5 · 19:45 UTC · Serbia vs Germany
Serbia host Germany in the UEFA Nations League; first whistle 19:45 UTC.
Home and away, Serbia produce 1.19 xG and give up 1.08 on average over a 9-game sample; 0.8 goals a game leaves them short of their chances. The results side of it: 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. The hosts are 6 games without a victory.
Germany sit at 1.42 expected goals for, 1.33 against per game away from home in their last seven matches, though 1.0 goals per game is less than that xG. In those matches: 2 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost.
They have met once before in our records, a win for Germany. Their most recent game, on 1 Oct 2026, finished Germany 2-0 Serbia.
The expected goals for this one come out at 1.26 (Serbia) and 1.25 (Germany). That points to Serbia 37%, draw 27%, Germany 36%. Score most likely: 1-1. 46% for over 2.5, both teams to score at 51%.
Our xG previewSerbia: last five in xGGermany: last five in xG
At 19:45 UTC, Slovakia take on Faroe Islands (UEFA Nations League).
Over their last six, in home games, Slovakia's matches have averaged an xG split of 1.13 to 0.94, with 1.5 goals per game beating the xG. The results side of it: 2.2 points a game (4-1-1). The hosts have gone seven without losing. They have scored in each of their last eight.
Home and away, Faroe Islands produce 1.17 xG and give up 1.17 on average across the last eight. In those matches: 3 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost. Faroe Islands have not lost in five matches. A goal in every one of their last five for Faroe Islands.
Their only earlier game in our records was drawn. Their most recent game, on 2 Oct 2026, finished Faroe Islands 1-1 Slovakia.
Setting each attack against the other's defence, the preview has Slovakia on 1.15 xG and Faroe Islands on 1.05. Win, draw, win: 38%, 29%, 33%. The likeliest scoreline: 1-1. Both teams on the scoresheet at 45%, 38% for a three-goal game.
Our xG previewSlovakia: last five in xGFaroe Islands: last five in xG
Slovenia welcome Switzerland in UEFA Nations League (League B - 5); kick-off time 19:45 UTC.
Slovenia sit at 0.81 xG for and 1.19 against per game in front of their own fans over a 7-game sample. That run brought a single win (5 drawn, 1 lost).
On opponents' grounds, Switzerland produce 1.62 xG and give up 0.74 on average from their last ten games. On the scoreboard, those games gave W4 D5 L1. It is four games without defeat for the visitors. Switzerland have found the net in five straight games.
In 3 previous meetings on record: Slovenia wins 0, Switzerland wins 2, draws 1. Last time out it was Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia (3 Oct 2026).
The expected goals for this one come out at 0.78 (Slovenia) and 1.41 (Switzerland). That points to Slovenia 21%, draw 27%, Switzerland 52%. For goals, the preview has 37% for a three-goal game and both teams on the scoresheet at 41%. The most likely single score on those numbers is 0-1.
Our xG previewSlovenia: last five in xGSwitzerland: last five in xG
Argentina keep chances against low going into Argentina v Uruguay
Friendlies · Friendly International · 23:00 UTC · Argentina vs Uruguay
Kick-off at 23:00 UTC for Argentina vs Uruguay (Friendlies) (Friendly International).
Over 5 past encounters, Argentina won 4, Uruguay won 1 and 0 were drawn. When they last met (21 Mar 2025), it ended Uruguay 0-1 Argentina.
Uruguay's chances overall come to 1.50 xG per match in the most recent nine, with 0.80 conceded. That run brought W3 D4 L2.
Across the last ten, in home games, Argentina's matches have averaged an xG split of 2.02 to 0.75. On the scoreboard, those games gave 2.8 points a game (9-1-0). Argentina kept three clean sheets in a row.
The expected goals for this one come out at 1.41 (Argentina) and 1.12 (Uruguay). Turned into chances, Argentina win 44% of the time, the away side 30%, with 26% for the draw. Over 2.5 on 47%, 51% that each side scores.
Our xG previewArgentina: last five in xGUruguay: last five in xG
Primera A · Clausura - 19 · 00:00 UTC · Llaneros vs Chico
00:00 UTC: Llaneros against Chico in Primera A action.
The xG record in front of their own fans reads 0.95 for, 1.15 against per game for Llaneros in the most recent ten; their finishing (1.3 goals per match) has outrun their xG. Results in that spell: 1.5 points a game (4-3-3).
Across 3 meetings in our records, Llaneros won 2, Chico won 1 and 0 were drawn. The last meeting, on 27 May 2026, ended Chico 0-1 Llaneros.
Chico sit at an xG split of 0.80 to 1.34 per game in away games across the last ten; 0.2 goals a game leaves them short of their chances. The away side took 0 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats from them.
Put together: 1.15 xG for Llaneros, 0.97 for Chico. As for goals, 36% on three goals or more and a goal at each end at 42%. That points to Llaneros 40%, draw 30%, Chico 31%. On these chances 1-0 is the most common score.
Our xG previewLlaneros: last five in xGChico: last five in xG
Segunda División · Regular Season - 14 · 19:30 UTC · Leganes vs Burgos
On the Segunda División programme: Leganes vs Burgos, 19:30 UTC.
The xG record on opponents' grounds reads 1.06 for, 1.23 against per game for Burgos from their last ten games. In those matches: W5 D2 L3. It is five games without defeat for Burgos. Burgos have scored in five in a row.
The head-to-head: Leganes 0, draws 0, Burgos 2 from 2 matches. Their most recent game, on 31 Jan 2026, finished Burgos 2-1 Leganes.
Leganes sit at 1.98 expected goals for, 1.23 against per game at home from their last ten games, while their goals (1.4 per match) trail the chances. The results side of it: W5 D2 L3.
The expected goals for this one come out at 1.60 (Leganes) and 1.15 (Burgos). The goals picture: 54% that each side scores, over 2.5 goals at 52%. Win, draw, win: 48%, 25%, 27%. The most likely single score on those numbers is 1-1.
Our xG previewLeganes: last five in xGBurgos: last five in xG
For each match with xG, both sides' last ten matches with xG before the kick-off: the home side's home games and the away side's away games when there are five or more, otherwise all games. Each attack's chances created are set against the other side's chances allowed, which gives each side's expected goals for the match; the outcomes and the goals markets come from those numbers (Poisson). After the final whistle the match's own xG sits next to the preview. How we measure xG · xG Guide.
A reading of recent chances, not a forecast and not a tip. Times are in UTC.