xG Daily: Tuesday 10 November 2026

Their only earlier game in our records went to Barnet. Their most recent game, on 19 Jul 2025, finished Barnet 2-0 Leyton Orient.

On opponents' grounds, Leyton Orient produce 1.18 xG and give up 1.65 on average over a 10-game sample. The results side of it: 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats.

The xG record on home ground reads 2.21 for, 1.25 against per game for Barnet from their last ten games. In those matches: just one defeat (7 won, 2 drawn). It is four games without defeat for Barnet. Barnet have scored in seven in a row.

With both sides' numbers combined: 1.93 xG for Barnet, 1.21 for Leyton Orient. As outcomes, that reads 54% for Barnet, 22% for a draw and 24% for Leyton Orient. Both teams on the scoresheet at 60%, over 2.5 on 61%. The most likely single score on those numbers is 1-1.

The xG record on opponents' grounds reads 1.57 for, 1.08 against per game for Reading over their last ten, scoring 1.2 per match, below what the chances are worth. The results side of it: 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses.

In home games, Bristol Rovers produce 1.78 xG and give up 1.14 on average across the last ten. In those matches: 7 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost.

Matching attack to defence: 1.43 xG for Bristol Rovers, 1.35 for Reading. Those numbers give Bristol Rovers a 39% chance of winning, the travelling side 36%, and the draw 25%. 56% for both sides scoring, three or more goals at 53%. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often.

In their last ten matches in away games, Notts County created 1.05 xG a game and allowed 1.51. Over the same games, the visitors recorded 1.5 points a game (4-3-3). Notts County are unbeaten in four.

Burton Albion's chances at home come to 1.26 xG per match from their last ten games, with 1.20 conceded. Across that stretch, 1.4 points a game (3-5-2) for the hosts.

They have met once before in our records, a win for Notts County. When they last met (29 Aug 2026), it ended Notts County 2-1 Burton Albion.

The expected goals for this one come out at 1.39 (Burton Albion) and 1.12 (Notts County). The split comes out at 43% / 27% / 30% for Burton Albion, the draw and Notts County. The goals picture: 51% for both sides scoring, 46% for a three-goal game. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often.

From their last ten games on home ground, Crewe created 1.54 xG a game and allowed 1.85. That run brought just one defeat (4 won, 5 drawn).

In their last ten matches, away from home, Wigan's matches have averaged 1.18 expected goals for, 1.85 against; 0.4 goals a game leaves them short of their chances. On the scoreboard, those games gave 0 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses.

On recent chances, Crewe project to 1.70 xG here and Wigan to 1.52. Goals: 62% on three goals or more; 64% that each side scores. Win, draw, win: 42%, 23%, 35%. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often.

Walsall have been running at 1.96 expected goals for, 1.94 against on opponents' grounds, over a 10-game sample, but only 1.6 goals a game have followed. The results side of it: W3 D5 L2. The visitors have found the net in ten straight games.

In front of their own fans, in their last ten matches, Leicester carry 1.84 xG for and 1.28 against per game, while their goals (1.4 per match) trail the chances. In those matches: 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats. Leicester have scored in eleven in a row.

The expected goals for this one come out at 1.89 (Leicester) and 1.62 (Walsall). As outcomes, that reads 44% for Leicester, 22% for a draw and 33% for Walsall. Score most likely: 1-1. As for goals, 68% for over 2.5 and both teams on the scoresheet at 68%.

On their travels, Chesterfield produce 1.51 xG and give up 1.47 on average in the most recent ten; 1.1 goals a game leaves them short of their chances. Over the same games, Chesterfield recorded W4 D3 L3.

Mansfield Town have been running at 1.85 xG created and 1.73 allowed in home games, across the last ten. Across that stretch, 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses for the home side.

They have met once before in our records, a win for Mansfield Town. Last time out it was Chesterfield 0-2 Mansfield Town (12 Aug 2025).

Setting each attack against the other's defence, the preview has Mansfield Town on 1.66 xG and Chesterfield on 1.62. On goals: 64% for a three-goal game, both teams to score at 65%. Those numbers give Mansfield Town a 39% chance of winning, the visitors 38%, and the draw 23%. Score most likely: 1-1.

They have met once before in our records, a draw. The latest of those games: Gillingham 1-1 Northampton, 29 Aug 2026.

Across the last ten in home games, Northampton created 1.02 xG a game and allowed 1.88. On the scoreboard, those games gave 0.8 points a game (2-2-6).

Gillingham have been running at 1.14 xG created and 1.63 allowed away from home, across the last ten, scoring 1.5 a game, more than the chances suggest. That run brought 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats.

Each side's chances for and against combine to 1.32 xG for Northampton and 1.51 for Gillingham. Those numbers give the hosts a 33% chance of winning, the visitors 42%, and the draw 25%. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often. For goals, the preview has 54% for a three-goal game and a goal at each end at 57%.

On home ground, across the last ten, Oxford United carry 1.48 xG created and 1.27 allowed per game. The home side took 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat from them.

Cheltenham sit at an xG split of 1.17 to 1.55 per game on the road across the last ten. Results in that spell: 0.8 points a game (2-2-6). They have scored in each of their last six.

On recent chances, Oxford United project to 1.52 xG here and Cheltenham to 1.22. As outcomes, that reads 44% for Oxford United, 25% for a draw and 31% for Cheltenham. The goals picture: 55% for both sides scoring, over 2.5 goals at 51%. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often.

In the most recent ten on home ground, Plymouth created 2.06 xG a game and allowed 1.32, while their goals (1.5 per match) trail the chances. Plymouth took W5 D2 L3 from them.

Swindon Town have been running at an xG split of 0.82 to 2.34 on opponents' grounds, over their last ten, though 0.4 goals per game is less than that xG. Results in that spell: 1 win, 3 draws and 6 defeats.

Put together, our xG preview gives Plymouth 2.20 expected goals and Swindon Town 1.07. Those numbers give the home side a 63% chance of winning, the away side 17%, and the draw 20%. Of all scorelines, 2-1 comes up most often. For goals, the preview has over 2.5 goals at 63% and a goal at each end at 58%.

In the most recent ten on opponents' grounds, Tranmere created 0.99 xG a game and allowed 1.66. Over the same games, Tranmere recorded 1 win, 6 draws and 3 defeats.

Their only earlier game in our records went to Stockport County. The last meeting, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Tranmere 1-3 Stockport County.

Across the last ten on home ground, Stockport County created 2.02 xG a game and allowed 1.23. Across that stretch, 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats for the home side.

Matching attack to defence: 1.84 xG for Stockport County, 1.11 for Tranmere. As outcomes, that reads 54% for Stockport County, 23% for a draw and 23% for the visitors. The most likely single score on those numbers is 1-1. The goals picture: both teams on the scoresheet at 56%, 57% for a three-goal game.

York's chances on the road come to 1.60 xG per match over a 7-game sample, with 1.93 conceded; 1.1 goals a game leaves them short of their chances. Over the same games, York recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses. The away side have found the net in nine straight games.

On home ground, over a 10-game sample, Bradford carry 1.50 xG for and 0.97 against per game, though 0.8 goals per game is less than that xG. Across that stretch, 4 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost for Bradford.

The expected goals for this one come out at 1.71 (Bradford) and 1.29 (York). Win, draw, win: 48%, 24%, 29%. The likeliest scoreline: 1-1. As for goals, 58% on three goals or more and 59% that each side scores.

Milton Keynes Dons have averaged an xG split of 1.52 to 1.10 away from home over their last ten. That run brought 3 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost. Milton Keynes Dons have not lost in four matches.

Across the last ten, in home games, Bromley's matches have averaged 1.29 xG created and 1.53 allowed. On the scoreboard, those games gave 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats. The home side are 9 games without a victory.

Over 3 past encounters: Bromley wins 1, Milton Keynes Dons wins 2, draws 0. The latest of those games: Milton Keynes Dons 4-1 Bromley, 27 Oct 2026.

The expected goals for this one come out at 1.20 (Bromley) and 1.52 (Milton Keynes Dons). Over 2.5 goals at 51%, a goal at each end at 55%. Win, draw, win: 30%, 25%, 45%.

Häcken W have been running at 2.32 xG for and 1.24 against in all games, in their last seven matches. On the scoreboard, those games gave 6 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. It is six games without defeat for Häcken W. Häcken W have scored in six in a row.

Chelsea W's chances wherever they played come to 2.64 xG per match in their last five matches, with 0.69 conceded, turning those chances into 3.6 goals a game. That run brought 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. It is 15 games without defeat for the travelling side. Chelsea W have found the net in six straight games.

The expected goals for this one come out at 1.50 (Häcken W) and 1.94 (Chelsea W). A goal at each end at 67%, 67% for a three-goal game. Win, draw, win: 30%, 22%, 48%. The most likely single score on those numbers is 1-1.

One previous meeting on record: won by Bayern Munich W. When they last met (20 Nov 2025), it ended Paris Saint Germain W 1-3 Bayern Munich W.

Bayern Munich W have been running at 2.54 xG for and 0.85 against home and away, from their last six games, with 3.5 goals per game beating the xG. Over the same games, the travelling side recorded 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. No defeat in 19 for the away side. Bayern Munich W have scored in 30 in a row.

Paris Saint Germain W have been running at 0.99 expected goals for, 1.26 against overall, in their last five matches, scoring 1.4 a game, more than the chances suggest. Across that stretch, 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss for Paris Saint Germain W. No defeat in four for Paris Saint Germain W.

Combining both sides, the preview has Paris Saint Germain W on 0.92 xG and Bayern Munich W on 1.90. Those numbers give Paris Saint Germain W a 18% chance of winning, Bayern Munich W 60%, and the draw 22%. For goals, the preview has over 2.5 on 54% and 51% for both sides scoring.

Junior sit at 1.28 xG created and 0.79 allowed per game on home ground across the last ten. The results side of it: 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeat.

One previous meeting on record: drawn. Last time out it was Cucuta 1-1 Junior (24 Apr 2026).

The xG record on the road reads 0.78 for, 1.21 against per game for Cucuta over their last ten. In those matches: 1 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost.

Put together: 1.25 xG for Junior, 0.79 for Cucuta. As for goals, 33% on three goals or more and both teams to score at 39%. As outcomes, that reads 47% for the home side, 29% for a draw and 23% for the visitors. The most likely single score on those numbers is 1-0.

In the most recent seven, overall, Aurora's matches have averaged 1.20 xG created and 1.74 allowed. In those matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses.

Universitario de Vinto have been running at an xG split of 1.62 to 1.59 overall, in the most recent nine, while their goals (0.8 per match) trail the chances. The results side of it: 1 won, 1 drawn, 7 lost.

In 7 previous meetings on record, the record stands at 5 Aurora wins, 0 for Universitario de Vinto and 2 draws. When they last met (19 Sep 2026), it ended Aurora 4-2 Universitario de Vinto.

The expected goals for this one come out at 1.40 (Aurora) and 1.68 (Universitario de Vinto). As outcomes, that reads 32% for the home side, 24% for a draw and 44% for Universitario de Vinto. On goals: 59% on three goals or more, both teams to score at 61%.