Loading the map…
10 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 24.0 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City 1–0 Cheltenham | 0.49–0.81 | 21% · 39% · 40% | Won against the xG: Exeter City |
| Bristol Rovers 0–2 Chesterfield | 0.63–0.66 | 29% · 40% · 31% | Close call, Chesterfield won |
| Colchester 2–0 Gillingham | 2.78–0.49 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Crewe 2–2 Newport County | 1.61–0.58 | 63% · 24% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Crewe had 63% |
| Port Vale 4–2 Accrington ST | 2.30–0.62 | 75% · 16% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Port Vale |
| Rochdale 0–1 York | 1.74–1.08 | 53% · 24% · 24% | Won against the xG: York |
| Salford City 1–1 Northampton | 0.65–0.65 | 30% · 40% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Shrewsbury 2–1 Oldham | 1.68–0.41 | 69% · 22% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Shrewsbury |
| Swindon Town 1–4 Grimsby | 1.34–3.24 | 12% · 13% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Fleetwood Town 1–0 Tranmere | 1.24–1.04 | 41% · 28% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.